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Synonyms for Problem Solving

Meaning of Problem Solving

The term “problem solving” refers to the process of identifying, analyzing, and resolving issues or challenges. This process often involves critical thinking, creativity, and resourcefulness. In this article, we will explore general synonyms for “problem solving,” as well as those specifically used in academic writing.

General Synonyms for Problem Solving

• Troubleshooting
• Conflict resolution
• Decision making
• Critical thinking
• Resourcefulness
• Adaptability

Synonyms for Problem Solving in Academic Writing

In academic writing, it is essential to use precise and appropriate language. When discussing the problem-solving process or skills, consider the following synonyms, which are better suited for academic contexts:

Synonyms, Definitions, and Examples

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Problem-solution essays Situation-problem-solution-evaluation

Problem-solution essays are a common essay type, especially for short essays such as subject exams or IELTS . The page gives information on what they are , how to structure this type of essay, and gives an example problem-solution essay on the topic of obesity and fitness levels.

What are problem-solution essays?

Problem-solution essays consider the problems of a particular situation, and give solutions to those problems. They are in some ways similar to cause and effect essays , especially in terms of structure (see below). Problem-solution essays are actually a sub-type of another type of essay, which has the following four components:

The 'situation' may be included in the essay prompt, in which case it will not be needed in the main body. If it is needed, it can often be included in the introduction, especially for short essays, as with the example essay below . The 'evaluation' may be included as part of the conclusion (also as in the example below), or omitted altogether, especially for short essays. For these reasons, problem-solution essays are more common than situation-problem-solution-evaluation essays (or SPSE essays).

There are two main ways to structure a problem-solution essay. These are similar to the ways to structure cause and effect essays , namely using a block or a chain structure. For the block structure, all of the problems are listed first, and all of the solutions are listed afterwards. For the chain structure, each problem is followed immediately by the solution to that problem. Both types of structure have their merits. The former is generally clearer, especially for shorter essays, while the latter ensures that any solutions you present relate directly to the problems you have given.

The two types of structure, block and chain , are shown in the diagram below. This is for a short essay, which includes the 'situation' in the introduction and 'evaluation' in the conclusion. A longer essay, for example one of around 1,000 words, with citations , would probably have these two sections as separate paragraphs in the main body.

Example essay

Below is a problem-solution essay on the topic of obesity and poor fitness . It uses the block structure . Click on the different areas (in the shaded boxes) to highlight the different structural aspects in this essay, i.e. Situation, Problem, Solution, Evaluation. This will highlight not simply the paragraphs, but also (for problems and solutions) the thesis statement and summary , as these repeat the problems and solutions contained in the main body.

Consumption of processed and convenience foods and our dependence on the car have led to an increase in obesity and reduction in the fitness level of the adult population. In some countries, especially industrialized ones, the number of obese people can amount to one third of the population. This is significant as obesity and poor fitness lead to a decrease in life expectancy , and it is therefore important for individuals and governments to work together to tackle this issue and improve their citizens' diet and fitness. Obesity and poor fitness decrease life expectancy. Overweight people are more likely to have serious illnesses such as diabetes and heart disease, which can result in premature death. It is well known that regular exercise can reduce the risk of heart disease and stroke, which means that those with poor fitness levels are at an increased risk of suffering from those problems. Changes by individuals to their diet and their physical activity can increase life expectancy. There is a reliance today on the consumption of processed foods, which have a high fat and sugar content. By preparing their own foods, and consuming more fruit and vegetables, people could ensure that their diets are healthier and more balanced, which could lead to a reduction in obesity levels. In order to improve fitness levels, people could choose to walk or cycle to work or to the shops rather than taking the car. They could also choose to walk up stairs instead of taking the lift. These simple changes could lead to a significant improvement in fitness levels. Governments could also implement initiatives to improve their citizens' eating and exercise habits. This could be done through education, for example by adding classes to the curriculum about healthy diet and lifestyles. Governments could also do more to encourage their citizens to walk or cycle instead of taking the car, for instance by building more cycle lanes or increasing vehicle taxes. While some might argue that increased taxes are a negative way to solve the problem, it is no different from the high taxes imposed on cigarettes to reduce cigarette consumption. In short, obesity and poor fitness are a significant problem in modern life, leading to lower life expectancy . Individuals and governments can work together to tackle this problem and so improve diet and fitness . Of the solutions suggested, those made by individuals themselves are likely to have more impact, though it is clear that a concerted effort with the government is essential for success. With obesity levels in industrialized and industrializing countries continuing to rise, it is essential that we take action now to deal with this problem.

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Compare & contrast essays examine the similarities of two or more objects, and the differences.

Cause & effect essays consider the reasons (or causes) for something, then discuss the results (or effects).

Discussion essays require you to examine both sides of a situation and to conclude by saying which side you favour.

Problem-solution essays are a sub-type of SPSE essays (Situation, Problem, Solution, Evaluation).

Transition signals are useful in achieving good cohesion and coherence in your writing.

Reporting verbs are used to link your in-text citations to the information cited.

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Problem Solution Essay

Problem-Solution Essay - Writing Guide, Definition & Examples!

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Feeling stuck when it comes to writing a solid problem-solution essay?

You're not alone—many students find it challenging. This essay type requires careful consideration and skillful execution, which isn’t always easy.

But fret not! This guide is your go-to solution. We've got all the crucial steps, structures, and examples to make essay writing a breeze for you.

So, keep reading!

• 1. What is a Problem-Solution Essay?
• 2. Problem Solution Essay Structure
• 3. How to Write a Problem-Solution Essay?
• 4. Problem-Solution Essay Examples
• 5. Problem Solution Essay Topics
• 6. Problem Solution Essay Checklist

What is a Problem-Solution Essay?

A problem-solution essay is a form of argumentative writing that looks into a specific issue, providing a detailed examination of the problem and proposing effective solutions. 

A problem-solution essay stands apart from narrative , descriptive , and expository essays by focusing sharply on identifying a problem, analyzing its causes, and proposing effective solutions. 

Unlike other types of essays , it places a strong emphasis on presenting practical remedies to real-world problems. This makes it a unique and impactful type of academic essay writing .

Why Write a Problem Solution Essay

There are significant reasons to write a problem solution essay. 

• First, it encourages the practical application of knowledge by addressing real-world issues and proposing solutions.
• Develops deeper understanding of societal problems.
• Refines analytical skills and fosters a solution-oriented mindset.
• Enhances communication abilities through clear explanation of complex issues and solutions.
• Facilitates intellectual growth by tackling significant societal challenges.

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Problem Solution Essay Structure

In crafting a problem-solution essay, the structure plays a pivotal role in presenting ideas coherently and persuasively. 

Two commonly used structures for this type of essay are the block structure and the chain structure. Each has its unique approach to organizing information, offering writers flexibility in presenting their analysis and proposed solutions.

Block Structure

The block structure, also known as the whole-to-whole or one-side-at-a-time structure, is a straightforward organizational method. 

In this type of structure, the writer dedicates separate blocks of text to first presenting the problem comprehensively. The solutions to the problems are presented in the next sections subsequently. 

This structure allows for a clear separation between the problem and solution sections, providing a systematic and easy-to-follow presentation.

Here is an outline for block structure problem-solution essay:

Chain Structure

Contrasting the block structure, the chain structure takes an interconnected approach. 

In this format, the essay addresses a specific problem and promptly proposes a solution. 

The pattern repeats as each problem is introduced, followed immediately by its corresponding solution. This structure aims to maintain a continuous and engaging flow, presenting a transition between problems and solutions. 

Here is a chain structure problem solution essay template:

How to Write a Problem-Solution Essay?

A problem solution essay requires taking a systematic approach. Here are the basic steps for writing this type of essay:

Step 1 - Topic Selection

Choosing the right topic is the first crucial step in writing a problem-solution essay. Pick a real-world issue that genuinely interests you. 

Consider problems that have personal significance or affect your community. The goal is to engage with a problem that allows for meaningful discussion and exploration.

Step 2 - Understanding the Problem

Before diving into solutions, take the time to fully grasp the intricacies of the problem at hand. 

Research the issue thoroughly, aiming to comprehend its various aspects and implications. This step is essential for presenting a well-informed analysis in your essay, ensuring a solid foundation for proposing solutions.

Step 3 - Explore Viable Solutions

Once you've identified and understood the problem, brainstorm possible solutions. 

Think about practical, achievable, and effective ways to address the issue. Consider different angles and perspectives, aiming for solutions that are not only feasible but also have the potential to make a positive impact in real-world scenarios.

Step 4 - Create an Outline

Organize your thoughts and structure your essay by creating a clear outline. 

Allocate specific sections for introducing the problem, proposing solutions, and crafting a conclusion. A well-organized outline serves as a roadmap, guiding you through each step of the writing process.

Step 5 - Write the Introduction

Begin your essay with a captivating introduction . Start with an attention-grabbing essay hook that draws your reader in. 

Clearly state the problem, emphasizing its significance. Conclude the introduction with a concise thesis statement that outlines the solutions you will explore in the essay.

Step 6 - Craft Body Paragraph

Dedicate an individual body paragraph to each problem and its corresponding solution. Elaborate on the details of the problem and present practical solutions. 

Support your ideas with examples, evidence, or real-life scenarios. This section forms the core of your essay, providing a comprehensive exploration of the issues at hand.

Step 7 - Address Possible Objections

Acknowledge and address potential counterarguments to your proposed solutions. 

Anticipating objections adds depth to your essay, showcasing a thorough consideration of alternative viewpoints. By addressing possible objections, you strengthen the overall persuasiveness of your solutions.

Step 8 - Conclude The Essay

Conclude your essay by summarizing the main points without introducing new information. Reinforce the importance of the proposed solutions and leave a lasting impression. 

Consider ending with a call to action or a thought-provoking statement that resonates with your reader. The conclusion should provide a sense of closure to your essay.

Problem-Solution Essay Examples

We know that writing this kind of essay could be a challenge. Here are some problem solution essay samples, you can download and read them for free:

Problem Solution Essay Sample PDF

Financial Problem Solution Essay

Garbage Problem Solution Essay

Problem Solution Essay IELTS

Problem Solution Essay Topics

When picking a topic for your problem-solution essay, think about a few important things. 

Choose something that matters to your audience and is important in society right now. Pick issues that really affect people or communities and need attention. 

Make sure the problem can be realistically solved with practical solutions. Here is a list of problem solution essay questions and topics you can use:

• Tobacco should be banned to control lung cancer. Discuss.
• Obesity is caused by genetically modified and processed food. Discuss the solution.
• Movie scripts should be censored to control violence in youth. Discuss.
• How to tackle the lack of resources in urban homeless shelters?
• Government should propose some policies to deal with illegal immigration. Discuss.
• How can we use social media to improve awareness?
• Propose some ways to keep your friends and family safe.
• College students in the United States are overburdened with homework.
• How to improve the quality of education in high school?
• Providing equal opportunities to under-privileged children is important. Discuss.

These are some good problem-solution topics that you can tweak to use as your own. 

Problem Solution Essay Checklist

Use this checklist to ensure your problem solution essay is well-crafted and effective:

So, wrapping up, with this guide and checklist, you can now write a problem-solution essay that fulfills its purpose. Just remember to be clear, practical, and interesting. 

But if you still feel unsure or want extra help, our professional essay writing service is here for you. 

Our experts know how to handle any type of essay, making sure it's top-notch. If you need that extra boost, don't hesitate to get in touch with us. We're here to make sure your essay shines and gets the job done.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is a problem-solution essay called.

A problem-solution essay is often simply called a "problem-solution essay." It's named this way because its primary purpose is to identify a problem and propose effective solutions.

What type of paper is a problem-solution?

A problem-solution essay is categorized as an argumentative essay. It aims to persuade the reader that a particular problem exists and that specific solutions can address it effectively.

What is the problem-solution essay test?

There isn't a standardized test specifically called a "problem-solution essay test." However, in academic settings, instructors may assign problem-solution essays as assignments or assessments to evaluate students' abilities to analyze problems and propose viable solutions.

What is the problem solution essay topics list for IELTS?

Here are ten potential topics for a problem-solution essay suitable for the IELTS exam:

• Discuss measures to mitigate the impact of climate change on local communities.
• Analyze strategies to reduce youth unemployment rates globally.
• Propose solutions to alleviate traffic congestion in urban areas.
• Suggest ways to combat rising obesity rates among children and adults.
• Recommend actions to reduce plastic pollution in oceans and waterways.
• Discuss how to improve access to quality education for marginalized communities.
• Analyze methods to ensure equitable access to healthcare services in underserved regions.
• Propose strategies to tackle cyberbullying and its psychological effects on victims.
• Suggest measures to address water scarcity issues in drought-prone regions.
• Discuss solutions to make housing more affordable for low-income families in urban areas.

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The Research Trajectory/Proposal

Picking a topic.

Think about what problem would you like to see solved. You should pick something that will be motivating to you, something that you are passionate about. Why? For one, it will make it easier for you to research and to keep yourself motivated to do the research. For another, it will make it easier for you to write on and make your paper more engaging for others to read. Your paper and the research it documents should be impactful to those who read it.

Important: make sure that you pick a problem that really has possible solutions. The same considerations apply to picking a topic for this paper as for any other -- the topic can't be too broad or too narrow, and it has to be something that can actually be researched. For more information on choosing a topic, check out this webpage on finding problem topics and useful ways to approach finding solutions to those problems .

Forming research questions

Not sure what to research for your topic? Take the topic you have selected and turn it into a research question. For instance, if your topic is "obesity in America," you could frame that into research questions like "What are measures that prevent weight gain?" or "What are the most sustainable diets for weight loss?" (Tip: Avoid search terms like "best" or "worst" because they are very vague and subjective. Choose terms that are more specific and quantifiable in meaning.)

Still stuck on how to create a research question? Check out this video for more help:

Researching your topic

Now that you have a research question, do some preliminary research to give you direction on breaking your problem down in to feasible solutions. Choose more specific Browse the library's databases, skim through a book, or search the web for possible information.

Keep these questions in mind as you search:

• What type of information is available on your topic?
• Where did you find this information?
• Who are the experts, and what do they have to say about your topic?

Creating a thesis and presenting your proposal

Using the research you gathered from your research question(s), create a claim indicating what solutions you plan to propose in your paper. What three solutions are you proposing to the problem? The topic you submit in your proposal cannot be changed, but the research process is still ongoing, so your solutions may change if you find better ones in your ongoing research. This is a tentative thesis; you can make some changes to it later if you need to.

Now that you have taken some time to seriously think about and research your topic, you are ready to present your trajectory/proposal (intentions) for the research project. The proposal must contain your final subject/topic for the research project.

Not sure how to put together a thesis? Watch this helpful video that breaks it down for you:

Outlining a Problem-Solution Paper

A problem-solution paper is exactly what it sounds like. First, an issue or obstacle is posed, then a solution or series of solutions is suggested to resolve that issue or obstacle.

Problem-solution essays can be structured differently depending on the nature of the topic. (For instance, if there is important historical information to your problem that is a bit too long for your intro, then you might want to spend a paragraph between your intro and your solution body paragraphs to give your audience that history.) Most essays, however, follow this basic formula:

I. Introduction: Communicating the Problem

• Paint a vivid picture of the problem. Focus on the how and why: how did this become a problem? why is it (still) a problem? why is it important / why does it need to be fixed? 
• End your intro with a thesis statement recapping the problem and providing a preview of the solution(s) you will offer in the rest of your paper.

II. Body: Communicating the Solution(s)

• Cover each potential solution to the problem in its own paragraph, or cover each step of a multi-step solution with each step having its own paragraph.
• Each body paragraph should have a clearly stated claim that is distinct from, though connected to, the other paragraphs.
• Support each solution or solution step with several pieces of evidence from authoritative sources of information. (Best to go to the library catalog and article databases for these.)
• Cite each source used to support your claims correctly according to MLA citation format , using an in-text citation that corresponds to an entry in your works cited page.

III. Conclusion: Reiterating Importance

• Recap your thesis statement (problem + brief overview of solution)
• Close out your paper by emphasizing the importance of solving the problem you have covered.
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Opinion: The problem with calling Trump and Vance weird

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Democratic politicians and pundits have recently begun throwing this insult at Republican presidential contender Donald Trump and his running mate, JD Vance: “weird.” As a scholar who has made my academic career in part by celebrating weirdness, I object. Trump and Vance don’t deserve the compliment.

The weird should be understood as whatever is strikingly contrary to the ordinary, predictable and readily comprehensible. It is a contrast with the normal. Consider blades of grass. Although no two are exactly the same, their variation keeps to certain limits. But here’s a blade that splits into three halfway up, with each finger curling around in a loop. Why would it do that? Now that’s a weird blade of grass!

Recently, my family and I visited Hayao Miyazaki’s Ni-Tele Really Big Clock in Tokyo. What a weird object: It looms from the side of a skyscraper, featuring mannequins and giant bird claws. When noon strikes, one claw opens to reveal a smiling sun, a fish tail bangs a gong and a bell-headed mannequin enacts a goofy dance. Nature also offers plenty of weirdness, such as the miraculously thin, Seussian piles of stone in Utah’s Bryce Canyon, the surreal mineral-deposit terraces of Pamukkale in Turkey and gloriously bizarre fish and fungi around the world.

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Column: With a single word — ‘weird’ — Democrats may have found Republicans’ kryptonite

By dismissing Donald Trump and J.D. Vance as ‘weird,’ the Democrats have defanged Republicans’ campaign of fear — and started to drive GOP leaders crazy.

July 30, 2024

The Democrats are getting mileage from calling Trump and Vance “weird.” The word has been used enough by allies of Vice President Kamala Harris and her presidential campaign to receive substantial news coverage as a political strategy, even praise for its success . The resonance of this strategy seems to reflect a widespread misunderstanding of who is really weird. The term should conjure the guy who rides through Berkeley on a unicycle, wearing a top hat; the business school standout who drops out to live on an organic seed farm; the middle school kid who plasters their bedroom with posters of squids and snails, ignoring pop culture in favor of a deep fascination with mollusk biology. Each is, in their own way, a wonder of nature, and the world is richer for having them.

Trump’s and Vance’s behavior, on the other hand, reflects something more troubling. Their views toward women and reproductive rights, for example — demeaning the former and opposing the latter — are inappropriate and deservedly in the minority. But those views, unfortunately, are not rare enough to be truly weird. In fact, in contemporary America, Trump and Vance are normal, predictable and readily understood. They are ordinary, self-serving politicians, conforming to the demands of those who have rewarded their behavior.

And even if these perspectives were more unusual, that would not be the source of these politicians’ badness. Yes, some unusual things are bad, such as serial killings. And Trump does have his head-scratching moments — consider the frequent references to fictional serial killer Hannibal Lecter on the campaign trail. But things and people are not bad because they are weird. It seriously misrepresents the nature of Trump’s and Vance’s departure from liberal values to treat weirdness as their headline flaw.

Opinion: Elon Musk and Peter Thiel backed Trump and Vance. What would their ticket do for tech?

If the GOP takes the White House, that likely means mixed results for regulation of Big Tech.

July 26, 2024

What is it to be liberal? It is to tolerate, or even to celebrate, others with different values and practices. Liberal parents permit their children to make choices other than their own. Liberal societies are pluralistic and egalitarian, not requiring citizens to adhere to mainstream culture and religion.

There are always some gardeners who would prefer to mow down the weird blade of grass, and some people are similarly made uncomfortable by others they regard as weird. These are the people for whom “weird” is the choicest insult. In the conformist hellscape of middle school (or at least of some middle schools), bands of lookalike kids who prize their normality — even more, their being perceived as normal — taunt the kids who don’t easily fit in, such as the mollusk lover. I was insulted as “weird” in school myself. But I grew to embrace my own weirdness and weirdness in general. I realized that to use “weird” as an insult is implicitly to accept a conformist worldview — a worldview that devalues rather than appreciates difference and novelty.

Our Democratic politicians and pundits are, and should be, better than that. The Democrats pride themselves on being the party of diversity, on accepting people with a wide range of worldviews, cultures, sexual orientations, life experiences and interests, on making room for nonconformists and those outside the mainstream.

Using “weird” as a term of mockery, as though that’s the best descriptor of Trump and Vance, may be politically advantageous right now. But it denigrates the truly weird. It’s more accurate to call Trump and Vance liars, authoritarians, conscienceless political shape-shifters and wrong on policy. Those are ample, and more appropriate, reasons to vote against them.

Eric Schwitzgebel is a professor of philosophy at UC Riverside and author of “ The Weirdness of the World. ”

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What’s up with ‘weird’? Tim Walz and his Midwestern plain talk

Aug. 6, 2024

Column: Even Trump and JD Vance can’t match the unbearable weirdness of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

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Thesaurus for Problems

Related terms for problems - synonyms, antonyms and sentences with problems, similar meaning.

• difficulties
• predicaments
• complications
• inconvenience
• cryptograms
• perplexities

Opposite meaning

• money for jam
• hand guides
• remediations
• nonproblems
• money for old rope
• piece of cake
• piece of piss
• advantageous position
• comfortable situation
• easy situation
• inner peace
• life of ease
• milk and honeys
• peace of mind
• prosperous position
• comfortable activity

Common usage

• power through
• one of a kind
• have growing pains
• have a rough time of it
• have a thin time of it
• get into deep water
• not without difficulty
• raise hail columbia
• unhappiness
• unpleasantness

Sentence Examples

Proper usage in context.

• I am more important than my problems Jose Ferrer
• Problems are nothing but wake-up calls for creativity Gerhard Gschwandtner
• Problems are only opportunities in work clothes Henry J. Kaiser
• Expect problems and eat them for breakfast Alfred A. Montapert
• Problems are not stop signs, they are guidelines Robert Schuller

Enough With the Economic Doomsaying

T he U.S. economy grew at a robust 2.8% in the second quarter, far faster than economists’ predictions of just 2%. The miss is reminiscent of a long losing streak for doomsaying about the U.S. economy. 2023 stood in the shadow of the “ inevitable recession ,” a spectacular forecasting failure that persisted in the face of remarkable economic strength. In 2022, the economic narrative suggested that inflation would spiral into persistent 1970s-style inflation ; and, in 2020, a “ COVID depression ,” a downturn worse than 2008 and perhaps as bad as the 1930s, was widely foreseen.

The recent pile-up of forecast failures is reminiscent of 2008, when the global financial crisis crushed the reputation of economics along with banks’ balance sheets. Then, the most stinging criticism of the discipline came from unexpected quarters. On a campus visit to the London School of Economics, the Queen asked a simple question that captured the global mood: “why did nobody see the crisis coming?”

What’s wrong with economics

Publicly humbled, the economists retreated to their quarters to conduct a post-mortem. But the resulting  letter to the Queen  epitomizes much of what is wrong with economics—now as then. The academics were already improving their approaches, they wrote, and would perfect their models such that her Majesty would “never need to ask your question again.”

If only. The problem of economics is not that models have yet to be perfected but that practitioners still believe they can and should be. “ Physics envy ”—the desire of economists to emulate the natural sciences—has led to borrowing mathematical and statistical methods in the hopes of replicating their accuracy. It has made their work weaker, not stronger.

Economists can’t say they weren’t warned. Some of the discipline’s luminaries, on both sides of the ideological spectrum, criticized economists’ scientific pretenses many years ago. In 1938, John Maynard Keynes warned that economics was “ not homogenous through time ” the way we can assume the physical world to be. In 1949, Ludwig von Mises wrote that there were “ no constant relations ” in economics. And putting it most bluntly and aptly, Friedrich von Hayek in the 1970s stated that it would lead to “ outright error ” if economists continued to “imitate the brilliantly successful natural sciences.”

Consider recent “outright errors” in predicting inflation, the inevitability of recession, and impossibility of a “soft landing.” The loudest voices propagating this narrative, such as Larry Summers, did so in the tradition of the Phillips curve, a model of inflation with a checkered history. It posits a trade-off between lower inflation and higher unemployment—only by putting workers out of work would consumption and therefore price growth slow. The post-pandemic version of this idea was that unemployment would have to rise to a recessionary 6% to bring inflation down. But inflation fell from 9.1% to just above 3% in a year, and unemployment stayed near record lows. 

Milton Friedman’s mantra that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” is another case in point. Hammered into generations of students, monetarism—the school of thought that linked growth in money supply and inflation—has enduring appeal even as empirical failures have accumulated. In the aftermath of 2008, when central banks aggressively grew the money supply, many economists leaned on monetarism to predict imminent hyperinflation. Yet what followed was a decade-long struggle to reach a modest 2% inflation target.

In reality, macroeconomic prediction may be closer to playing a series of one-round games than cracking hard but stable truths the way physicists do. How could a recession be predicted with any degree of reliability if each has unique causes and contexts? The differences between the last four recessions—2020 (COVID-19 pandemic), 2008 (housing crash and banking crisis), 2001 (investment bust and stock-market crash) and 1990 (an oil shock)—speak to this point. And even if they did have common drivers, the U.S. has seen only 12 recessions since World War II. This means that when trying to model and forecast recessions the data available is very modest. It may irk economists, but that sample size is more suited to the historian than the physicist.

Nor will AI and ever-better computing power solve economic forecasting. Every new technology is a siren song for modelers—and each its own false dawn. When satellite imagery became commercially available, shots of Walmart parking lots were touted as real-time recession indicators but have not moved us closer to calling a recession, as we’ve seen. Web-scraping of prices was supposed to flag inflation in real time but failed to deliver any insight about the path of the inflation rollercoaster. AI will be powerful in many ways, but it will not “solve” economists’ forecasting problem.

Read More: To Fight Inequality, America Needs to Rethink Its Economic Model

The missing oath of humility

The upshot has hardly been just a series of bad forecasts. Unlike natural scientists, economists have an outsized voice in society—commanding the ear of policymakers, executives, investors, and the public. Passing economics off as a natural science is more than academic frivolity—it is a societal problem.

This too came with a warning—some 50 years ago. In 1974, Austrian-British economist Friedrich August von Hayek won the Nobel prize in economics, then a recent addition to the original prizes in peace, literature, physics, chemistry, and medicine. In a dinner speech to those honoring him, Hayek delivered a stinging message : The Nobel prize in economics, he said, should never have been introduced because it conferred undue authority on its recipients. This was not a worry in other disciplines, but economists’ societal influence meant the honor could do real harm.

So worried was Hayek about the gap between economists’ aspirations and abilities that he urged the Nobel committee to require an “oath of humility” from economics laureates, a sort of Hippocratic oath, “never to exceed in public pronouncements the limits of their competence.”  Hayek feared the rise of the omniscient economic oracle: a laurate at once whispering into leaders’ ears and shouting at the public even as their predictions remain largely guesswork.

Instead of adopting an oath of humility, economics has since churned out generations of model-wielding academics and policy wonks. And, as forewarned by Hayek, their figureheads often command outsized societal influence while ignoring the brittle nature of their craft. They routinely stray outside the bounds of their original field of competence—with bold confidence in their prognostications.

In 1990, for instance, a decade and a half after Hayek planted the idea of the humility oath, economist Paul Krugman predicted in The Age of Diminished Expectations that the U.S. would fall behind Japan and Europe in the economic pecking order, a defeatist narrative of relative decline that strayed outside his main academic work. As a columnist, Krugman has long written confidently on nearly any topic, a societal microphone that his 2008 Nobel prize turned into a megaphone. There are many brilliant insights in Krugman’s writing. Yet more than three decades after having predicted the U.S.’ relative decline in a major book, Japan and Europe remain far behind the U.S.

Read More: Why Paul Krugman Is Wrong About the 1990s

The audience is at fault, too

Hayek’s warning about the omniscient oracle holds another insight: The discipline’s dysfunction is not economists’ fault alone. In their embrace of math and models, economists misuse the discipline, but it’s the audience that routinely abuses their work.

Again, this has a long tradition. During World War II, Kenneth Arrow, another Nobel laureate in economics, was told to use his prodigious mathematical skills to forecast the weather a month out. He quickly uncovered that modeled forecasts were no better than those chosen at random and asked his commanding officer to send his analysis up the chain of command. The reply came back down : “The Commanding General is well aware that the forecasts are no good. However, he needs them for planning purposes.”

Today, repeated empirical, practical, and theoretical flops have not deterred demand for precision forecasts, for both the short  and  longer run. Businesses are no shier to request and use 3-year inflation forecasts for their strategic plans, never mind economists’ all too public struggles to get even the next month right. Policymakers routinely request economic forecasts to underpin their legislative proposals—even when told the predictive power is little better than junk. The audience’s hunger for precision is enduring.

And it’s not just professional users of economists’ output who gloss over the flaws for convenience. The media routinely does the same. Consider again the recent false alarm of an “inevitable recession.” Inevitability was certainly dialed up by economists. But even the gloomiest forecasters gave a 10, 20, or even 30% chance of a soft landing. An audience in search of an answer will readily gloss over such detail, particularly if the main argument is a simple message of collapse.

Indeed, public discourse is complicit in the doomsaying the “dismal science” is so good at. Often, economists are incentivized to make crass, bold, and apocalyptic predictions in a game to attract attention, airtime, and relevance. Though systemic risks remain in the economy, volatile economic data are routinely spun into stories of collapse and despair.

When inflation was 9.1% the choice was presented as either a runaway wage-price spiral, a deep recession with high unemployment, or even both: stagflation. But now we’ve had the longest stretch of unemployment below 4% in over 50 years and inflation is back within eyesight of the policy target. For every true crisis, there are many false alarms. Even so, there is little appetite for holding doomsayers accountable.

Read More: Is Economics Ideological by Nature?

Don’t fight uncertainty. Embrace it

The practitioners and users of economics must—and can—do better. But how?

Imposing a “humility oath” was workable neither half a century ago nor is it today—change must come from within and address the root cause of dysfunction.

Economists (and their audiences) can take inspiration from unexpected quarters. In 1760, before macroeconomics was born, Voltaire, the French philosopher, made an observation about uncertainty that epitomizes the struggles of modern economics: “Doubt is not an agreeable condition, but certainty is an absurd one.”

Economists’ relationship with uncertainty must be inverted. Welcoming uncertainty, rather than masking it with absurd scientific veneer, could bring three benefits.

First, accepting their vulnerabilities will nudge economists to seek inspiration—and help—from other disciplines. Those who eclectically string together economics, history, politics, finance, and other fields tend to produce more resilient readings of the future. Economists need not even feel ashamed of owning up to their limitations. Disciplines that stand on much firmer scientific ground are known to fail, too. In 2020, epidemiologists did no better at predicting COVID-19 deaths than economics did at predicting recovery.

Second, by embracing uncertainty, economists can let go of the faux precision of point forecasts and communicate more realistically about the distribution of their views, as well as the flaws and “error terms” that remain in any model. When the pretense of scientific precision fades, so does the need to project over-confidently. Though the doomsaying slant in public discourse will prevail, the audience can recognize the need for more-calibrated predictions and discount the brashest ones.

Third, though the embrace of uncertainty won’t deter economists from straying outside their specialized expertise, they can do so more effectively. Pontification can give way to exploration. This would also help the audience see there are no economic oracles—and that any economist comporting themselves as such should be avoided.

Does the embrace of uncertainty mean that forecasting and mathematical economics should be discarded? No. Both have a role when used thoughtfully. Forecasts should be understood as an uncertain, ever-changing numerical snapshot of an economic base case. And even the pretense of an “economic equilibrium” can be a useful analytical idea if we also acknowledge that the economy continuously moves from one disequilibrium to the next. But their usefulness should not be overstated, nor translated as inevitable in public discourse.

Read More: If the Economy Is Doing So Well, Why Does It Feel Like a Disaster?

Judgment not prediction

Today, there is already a wider range of approaches to economics and the economic mainstream may or may not drift towards a humbler future. Those too impatient for (uncertain) betterment can strengthen their own defenses.

We can and should reflexively question forecasts, taking them as a snapshot of somebody’s opinion, not a representation of the future. We can—and should—lean against doomsaying and keep track of the false alarms that economists sound. We can and should ask to hear the causes and drivers, explanations of supposedly dark outcomes rather their prediction. And we can be skeptical of the loudest voices and why they hold the microphone.

If we cast aside the pretense of certainty and accept uncertainty, we’ll find ourselves one step ahead of public discourse. That still won’t give us failsafe predictions of the future. But rather than outsource our judgment, we can cultivate it.

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Israel says it killed a Hezbollah commander , Fuad Shukr, in an airstrike near Beirut.

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